Horasis:The Global Visions Community Horasis China and business Asian business Asian business globalization systemic risk sustainability management consulting Asian trade globe visions leadership skills scenario-building World Economic Forum Frank-Jürgen Richter Frank-Jurgen Richter Frank-Juergen Richter Frank Richter
      Home Site Map Email
Home
Philosophy
Management
Events
Contact
Opinions
 
2017
Asia Needs more Dialogue
Solutions to urban pollution may prove complex
Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement
Investing in quality education is imperative if India wants to reap demographic dividends
China needs to lead in new multi-stakeholder world
China’s B&R initiative leading a resurgence of Asia
Education is key - but long-term: Can we survive?
New wave of robots will be beneficial to all
China needs to continue with its ‘heavy lifting’
Time is right for Chinese firms to invest in Europe
Robots to the rescue for China?
Asian Multinationals are Going Global, But to Where?
China ratchets forward with energy efforts
China’s calm necessary for globalization push
Bridging managerial gaps involves trust-building
China well-placed to power its future through green technology advances
China's new 'springtime' is here
2016
China’s moves show it’s banking on the future
Mindset for action at the G20 summit will be determined by Chinese presidency
Chinese head-hunting intensifies for rare managers that can steer overseas firms
US talk of isolation jars with growing links in Europe and Asia
Electoral rhetoric on global trade not in sync with reality
Is it time to be prudent and consider austerity policies again?
What will we do if we have no oil?
Unlock talent by finding the right fit for a person
The benefits are real and tangible
Trade along China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ won’t succeed without the currency of trust
Reasons for optimism about the long term
2015
Can big oil go green and win?
Poorer Nations Could Sway Climate Talks
Combating Idleness and Deprivation
How China can be a model of food sustainability for the developing world
Kyoto II – Is it a Done Deal?
A meeting of the two largest economic powers
Why China will experience a 'soft' landing
Beware of superstitions
The Elephant and Dragon move ahead
G-7 target on fossil fuels raises many questions
Why Battle for Net Neutrality in the US Matters Globally
China’s resurgence – the ‘normal new’
Wanted: A managerial culture that embraces cultural differences
China's early education plan a smart investment in the future
The New Normal for China and India
2014
China's infrastructure push offers a sure track to better growth
US-China climate pact a good start, but not quite enough
Rethink the human’s place in the ‘digital revolution’
China springs a carbon surprise
Infrastructure - the invisible hand in full view
Dialogue vital for survival of Iraqi nation
China must nurture a new generation of beautiful minds
Great expectations in China and India
GM Cereals – The Pros and Corns
Time to be Honest about Our Energy Prospects
Weathering the Storm of Climate Change
Making a Big Decision? Beware of Your Biases
West Deserves Better Logistics Infrastructure
Digital Currencies do Represent the Future
From 'Printed' Houses to Wooden Skyscrapers
It’s time to bail out our schools, not our firms
Solution to India’s housing shortage – print new ones!
And the most promising green technologies of 2014 are ...
Transport infrastructure key to domestic, export growth
Oil stopgaps: Not worth risking
2013
Why the US should grant Edward Snowden amnesty
May we be more optimistic!
China headed for another massive social experiment?
A dialogue that worked
Yes, politicians deserve vacations - because we benefit
NPOs, NGOs invaluable as creators of dialogue
Look closer and ask: Is America reinventing itself?
Boston bombings case underlines need for dialogue
Millennium Development Goals or own goals?
As usual it's about balance - and timing - of course
Chinese strategists make right moves for growth
2012
Preparing for tomorrow
Austerity or growth?
Japan in danger of becoming 'just a place to fly over'
Beware of the business cycle?
An inconvenient truth
Limited offer sale: Buy a country
Where did our money go?
Leading from behind - a year of elections is almost over
Driving towards a green future
Waiting for springtime
Preserve or Perish
Startlingly similar Asia policy for Obama, Romney
Globalisation remains an irresistible trend
Google has the edge in smartphone war
U.S. Braces for China's Rise
Mankind’s General Scourge
The summer holidays are over and nothing has changed!
Put the hidden trillions to work
Making sense of India’s woes and wonders
Storm in a teacup!
Let’s give bad bankers a venue to admit their sins
News is about depth, not puff or velocity
Booming India, but too few toilets
Delayed Court decisions doesn't mean one may continue to play 'Great Game'
We need media to reflect on data and offer public a balanced view
Big polluters can lead in forging common purpose
The weighty issue of choosing a leader
EU-India Relations - Facing similar challenges
Educating with a goal
The Judicial Malaise
We are growing out, but not growing up
EU´s retrenchment enigma
Urbulence in the Eurozone and the effect on SMEs
Skolkovo May Help Russia to Diversify
Make things more effective
Tapping into the Commonwealth connection
Innovative models for public finance
Facebook revolution but Indian style
The feel-good factor
Asian investors - a private equity opportunity
India needs to be taller and stronger
China´s low sales volume...
Nations playing leapfrog
Shafts of sunlight
What webs we weave
As performers go to Davos, the circus steals the show
Can we control the politicians?
 
2011
Europe’s reminiscence
China firms should go for win-win in overseas ventures
Of procrastination...
Making sense of profiteering
Truth about financial mess must be laid bare
Small is also beautiful
China can help Europe with debt crisis
Excising the cancer of global corruption
Education, a critical asset
Arab uprisings set in motion forces of creative destruction
A new era of change
We must ensure better education for all
Beijing wary of bankrolling a lost cause
Asean's re-emergence as a local and global leader
Why India's Role in the Global Economy is Still Work in Progress
Its the leadership, stupid!
Reverse globalisation: The new buzzword
The Elephant and Dragon move ahead
Business Times, July 18, 2015
China is strengthening its transport infrastructure and linking them to new cities,while India is building 100 new smart cities.
By Frank-Jürgen Richter
 

We love imagery – for instance, there are lions and kiwi competing in rugby and bulls and bears playing the stock markets. Here I am referring to India and China, and I will contrast and compare to argue that there is no real fear of them becoming entangled or enraged.

They are the most populous nations of the world holding 1.36 billion people (China) and 1.25 billion (India), contributing to Asia’s mass of 4.3 billion – well above Africa with 1.1 billion and dwarfing Europe at 742 million. Yet Europe, and the US at 565 million, frequently shout loudly.

Currently the US has the highest GDP at US$17.4 trillion with the euro area at US$13.4 trillion (the EU is higher at US$18.5 trillion as counted before the present Greek financial crisis), China is next at US$10.4 trillion with India trailing at US$2.1 trillion though not at the bottom of the table. Europe ruled the globe for a long time, then the US became more forceful in the recent technological age, but now Asia (and in particular China) begins to dominate. It is in this new race that India wishes to participate.

Modern trade
India hosted some of the world’s earliest settlements – with stability new inventions arrived – in the written language, mathematics and astronomy, as well as many religions still in vogue today. Trade with China came later, by about 1,500BC, with the domestication of pack animals. The Chinese Silk Road further developed trade, facilitated later by in-shore shipping promoted first by Arabic traders and then by Europeans during the 16th century. Trade was complicated for both nations when India became dominated by the British East India Company and China closed its doors to foreign trade in 1760 – forcing all traders to use a Chinese intermediary at the only open port, Guangzhou.

Of course in modern times most trade freely enters and leaves each nation though often subject to quotas, tariffs and subsidy biases. Now China has six ports in the global top 10. Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Dubai have one each (Rotterdam is 11th) while India ranks at 33rd with Mumbai.

As the globe developed after the UK’s Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s, the relinquishing of colonies created the modern economies. Initially countries in Europe and the US were the wealthiest nations and their peoples demanded more goods be produced efficiently – according to Adam Smith and David Ricardo – where they can be made most cheaply. This gave rise to the Asian labour-dominated economies and the developed world’s firms outsourced and offshored. During this period China lifted many millions out of poverty through its job-creation programmes.

Now Asian labour is becoming more costly: Thus China has become the world’s largest purchaser of industrial robots – machines that can work more accurately than a human and do this for 24/7 without stopping or going on strike. Thus the natural migration of rural workers in both India and China to the cities in search of better wages is fraught with issues. When this developmental phase took place in Europe and the US, it was in an age when muscle power was needed in their factories; now a robot can do the work of many persons and almost anywhere, which is why some firms in Europe and the US are re-shoring, thereby reducing overall costs as their total transport and time cycles for goods can be reduced.

It would appear that China considered migration and the issues it would force many years ago. It instigated massive transport infrastructure development. The sea ports mentioned above, but river ports, roads and railways, were also redeveloped to shift goods in and out of China. There are now 4.45 million km of roads (many fast dual carriageways); 98,000 km of railways (many permitting very high speeds); and 202 civil airports. The latter can act as hubs attracting new manufacturing investments and as focal points of new towns. All infrastructure foci are being enlarged in the 12th Five-Year Guidance to 2015 and they will interlink to the 200 new cities being built in the interior that will “capture” rural migrants, preventing them over-running the already busy coastal economic powerhouses.

India is a fascinating nation and carries many conundrums – why, for instance, has it not invested extensively in its infrastructure (to the extent of Western nations or its neighbour, China)? It is well known that the government has now called for US$1 trillion of investments up till 2017 prioritising three new airports, two ports, an elevated rail corridor in Mumbai and almost 10,000 km of new roads, and further investment in infrastructure is called for by 2020 and beyond. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, has just announced that the country will build 100 new smart cities which seem to follow (though they deny “following”) China: it must be the way forward as their present mega-cities would otherwise become unmanageable and ever unhealthier.

Optimistic outlook
Yet, attractive as it seems, India struggles to attract investors as its rules, regulations and corruption are onerous – it seems quite happy to abide by “the tyranny of petty bureaucracy”, opines Narayana Murthy, founder and past chairman of Infosys. Even so, Indian businesspeople are very optimistic of their future, suggesting that if they maintain the incremental growth and advances of the past 20 years into the next 20 years, they will be at the top edge of the Second World – but not in the first echelon, where I suggest China will be.

The future meetings of President Xi Jinping and Mr Modi will be interesting to observe as they build new trade relations. The Elephant will imperially tramp forward while the Dragon dances adroitly onwards.

 

The writer is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global visions community.


Horasis is a global visions community committed to enact visions for a sustainable future. (http://www.horasis.org)

For more information, please contact:
 
Communications and Public Affairs
Horasis. The Global Visions Community
phone: +41 79 305 3110
fax: +41 44 214 6502
e-mail: visions@horasis.org
 
 
Copyright © 2005 Horasis Web by Toronto Web Design