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2017
Asia Needs more Dialogue
Solutions to urban pollution may prove complex
Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement
Investing in quality education is imperative if India wants to reap demographic dividends
China needs to lead in new multi-stakeholder world
China’s B&R initiative leading a resurgence of Asia
Education is key - but long-term: Can we survive?
New wave of robots will be beneficial to all
China needs to continue with its ‘heavy lifting’
Time is right for Chinese firms to invest in Europe
Robots to the rescue for China?
Asian Multinationals are Going Global, But to Where?
China ratchets forward with energy efforts
China’s calm necessary for globalization push
Bridging managerial gaps involves trust-building
China well-placed to power its future through green technology advances
China's new 'springtime' is here
2016
China’s moves show it’s banking on the future
Mindset for action at the G20 summit will be determined by Chinese presidency
Chinese head-hunting intensifies for rare managers that can steer overseas firms
US talk of isolation jars with growing links in Europe and Asia
Electoral rhetoric on global trade not in sync with reality
Is it time to be prudent and consider austerity policies again?
What will we do if we have no oil?
Unlock talent by finding the right fit for a person
The benefits are real and tangible
Trade along China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ won’t succeed without the currency of trust
Reasons for optimism about the long term
2015
Can big oil go green and win?
Poorer Nations Could Sway Climate Talks
Combating Idleness and Deprivation
How China can be a model of food sustainability for the developing world
Kyoto II – Is it a Done Deal?
A meeting of the two largest economic powers
Why China will experience a 'soft' landing
Beware of superstitions
The Elephant and Dragon move ahead
G-7 target on fossil fuels raises many questions
Why Battle for Net Neutrality in the US Matters Globally
China’s resurgence – the ‘normal new’
Wanted: A managerial culture that embraces cultural differences
China's early education plan a smart investment in the future
The New Normal for China and India
2014
China's infrastructure push offers a sure track to better growth
US-China climate pact a good start, but not quite enough
Rethink the human’s place in the ‘digital revolution’
China springs a carbon surprise
Infrastructure - the invisible hand in full view
Dialogue vital for survival of Iraqi nation
China must nurture a new generation of beautiful minds
Great expectations in China and India
GM Cereals – The Pros and Corns
Time to be Honest about Our Energy Prospects
Weathering the Storm of Climate Change
Making a Big Decision? Beware of Your Biases
West Deserves Better Logistics Infrastructure
Digital Currencies do Represent the Future
From 'Printed' Houses to Wooden Skyscrapers
It’s time to bail out our schools, not our firms
Solution to India’s housing shortage – print new ones!
And the most promising green technologies of 2014 are ...
Transport infrastructure key to domestic, export growth
Oil stopgaps: Not worth risking
2013
Why the US should grant Edward Snowden amnesty
May we be more optimistic!
China headed for another massive social experiment?
A dialogue that worked
Yes, politicians deserve vacations - because we benefit
NPOs, NGOs invaluable as creators of dialogue
Look closer and ask: Is America reinventing itself?
Boston bombings case underlines need for dialogue
Millennium Development Goals or own goals?
As usual it's about balance - and timing - of course
Chinese strategists make right moves for growth
2012
Preparing for tomorrow
Austerity or growth?
Japan in danger of becoming 'just a place to fly over'
Beware of the business cycle?
An inconvenient truth
Limited offer sale: Buy a country
Where did our money go?
Leading from behind - a year of elections is almost over
Driving towards a green future
Waiting for springtime
Preserve or Perish
Startlingly similar Asia policy for Obama, Romney
Globalisation remains an irresistible trend
Google has the edge in smartphone war
U.S. Braces for China's Rise
Mankind’s General Scourge
The summer holidays are over and nothing has changed!
Put the hidden trillions to work
Making sense of India’s woes and wonders
Storm in a teacup!
Let’s give bad bankers a venue to admit their sins
News is about depth, not puff or velocity
Booming India, but too few toilets
Delayed Court decisions doesn't mean one may continue to play 'Great Game'
We need media to reflect on data and offer public a balanced view
Big polluters can lead in forging common purpose
The weighty issue of choosing a leader
EU-India Relations - Facing similar challenges
Educating with a goal
The Judicial Malaise
We are growing out, but not growing up
EU´s retrenchment enigma
Urbulence in the Eurozone and the effect on SMEs
Skolkovo May Help Russia to Diversify
Make things more effective
Tapping into the Commonwealth connection
Innovative models for public finance
Facebook revolution but Indian style
The feel-good factor
Asian investors - a private equity opportunity
India needs to be taller and stronger
China´s low sales volume...
Nations playing leapfrog
Shafts of sunlight
What webs we weave
As performers go to Davos, the circus steals the show
Can we control the politicians?
 
2011
Europe’s reminiscence
China firms should go for win-win in overseas ventures
Of procrastination...
Making sense of profiteering
Truth about financial mess must be laid bare
Small is also beautiful
China can help Europe with debt crisis
Excising the cancer of global corruption
Education, a critical asset
Arab uprisings set in motion forces of creative destruction
A new era of change
We must ensure better education for all
Beijing wary of bankrolling a lost cause
Asean's re-emergence as a local and global leader
Why India's Role in the Global Economy is Still Work in Progress
Its the leadership, stupid!
Reverse globalisation: The new buzzword
Why China will experience a 'soft' landing
By Frank-Jürgen Richter
China Daily, August 28, 2015
 

We can still recall the gleams in the eyes of Goldman Sachs statisticians in 2000 as they crunched data creating correlations between several countries which soon came to be called "BRICs". They said Brazil, Russia, India and China all had great potential for growth, and they would become the dominant economies with China leading the pack - overtaking Japan by 2015, and even outstripping the US by 2043. South Africa joined the group in 2010 to create BRICS.

But BRICS' collective strength has now faded, as developing economies often illustrate long-term tendencies toward lower growth rates. The average growth of BRICS has fallen from 8 percent to 6 percent, though they had annual rates as high as 11 percent. Even so, BRICS' combined economic output last year almost matched that of the US.

Market traders often cry "foul" when they perceive others might have an unfair advantage. That is exactly what the US, and other countries, kept saying China had kept the value of the yuan low relative to the rest of the world's currencies. Over the last 10 years the yuan has fallen from 8 to nearly 6 to the US dollar, but on "Black Monday" (Aug 24) many were still accusing China of beginning a currency war. But we ought not to consider a few days of rapid change as a unique indicator. Summer adjustments of the global economy have occurred sporadically, yet relatively often.

In the near future, China will have an easier time selling its goods to other countries but will find buying commodities more costly - yet perhaps it doesn't wish to buy so much raw materials because of the economic slowdown. China's index of manufacturing growth (purchasing managers index or PMI) has been below 50 for almost a year, falling from occasional highs of 55 from 2004 to 2014. Since "50" is seen as the divide between growth and slump, this suggests China is heading for a fall. And if the fall is "hard" it will have a significant effect on the rest of the world. Associated with its reduced PMI is a general lack of new capital investment and also job shedding (with its associated loss of employees' knowledge base).

But I believe China will experience a "soft" landing. Why? Simply because it has looked carefully at history, and decided many years ago that it needs to manage its people much more carefully.

China has invested heavily in its interiors and western region which are less developed. At present, China's coherent development of its internal trade arteries of roads, railways and rivers augmented by new regional airports strongly support internal trade. It is controlling its massive rural-to-town migration by building about 200 new cities in the interiors and linking them on the trade arteries. Both activities will avert social and economic unrest - but other countries may not be so secure. No other BRICS state can match China's prowess. One example of its prowess is the establishment of two investment banks - the New Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment bank - to help developing countries in particular, one aimed at BRICS and the other at Asia in general.

Furthermore, China has supported its own shipping lanes and ports so that they can take full advantage of the newly enlarged Suez and Panama canals and help lift world trade when it redevelops - specifically to the US, the EU and the UK. And I don't think I am being too optimistic.

 

The author Frank-Jürgen Richter is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global visions community.


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