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2017
Asia Needs more Dialogue
Solutions to urban pollution may prove complex
Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement
Investing in quality education is imperative if India wants to reap demographic dividends
China needs to lead in new multi-stakeholder world
China’s B&R initiative leading a resurgence of Asia
Education is key - but long-term: Can we survive?
New wave of robots will be beneficial to all
China needs to continue with its ‘heavy lifting’
Time is right for Chinese firms to invest in Europe
Robots to the rescue for China?
Asian Multinationals are Going Global, But to Where?
China ratchets forward with energy efforts
China’s calm necessary for globalization push
Bridging managerial gaps involves trust-building
China well-placed to power its future through green technology advances
China's new 'springtime' is here
2016
China’s moves show it’s banking on the future
Mindset for action at the G20 summit will be determined by Chinese presidency
Chinese head-hunting intensifies for rare managers that can steer overseas firms
US talk of isolation jars with growing links in Europe and Asia
Electoral rhetoric on global trade not in sync with reality
Is it time to be prudent and consider austerity policies again?
What will we do if we have no oil?
Unlock talent by finding the right fit for a person
The benefits are real and tangible
Trade along China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ won’t succeed without the currency of trust
Reasons for optimism about the long term
2015
Can big oil go green and win?
Poorer Nations Could Sway Climate Talks
Combating Idleness and Deprivation
How China can be a model of food sustainability for the developing world
Kyoto II – Is it a Done Deal?
A meeting of the two largest economic powers
Why China will experience a 'soft' landing
Beware of superstitions
The Elephant and Dragon move ahead
G-7 target on fossil fuels raises many questions
Why Battle for Net Neutrality in the US Matters Globally
China’s resurgence – the ‘normal new’
Wanted: A managerial culture that embraces cultural differences
China's early education plan a smart investment in the future
The New Normal for China and India
2014
China's infrastructure push offers a sure track to better growth
US-China climate pact a good start, but not quite enough
Rethink the human’s place in the ‘digital revolution’
China springs a carbon surprise
Infrastructure - the invisible hand in full view
Dialogue vital for survival of Iraqi nation
China must nurture a new generation of beautiful minds
Great expectations in China and India
GM Cereals – The Pros and Corns
Time to be Honest about Our Energy Prospects
Weathering the Storm of Climate Change
Making a Big Decision? Beware of Your Biases
West Deserves Better Logistics Infrastructure
Digital Currencies do Represent the Future
From 'Printed' Houses to Wooden Skyscrapers
It’s time to bail out our schools, not our firms
Solution to India’s housing shortage – print new ones!
And the most promising green technologies of 2014 are ...
Transport infrastructure key to domestic, export growth
Oil stopgaps: Not worth risking
2013
Why the US should grant Edward Snowden amnesty
May we be more optimistic!
China headed for another massive social experiment?
A dialogue that worked
Yes, politicians deserve vacations - because we benefit
NPOs, NGOs invaluable as creators of dialogue
Look closer and ask: Is America reinventing itself?
Boston bombings case underlines need for dialogue
Millennium Development Goals or own goals?
As usual it's about balance - and timing - of course
Chinese strategists make right moves for growth
2012
Preparing for tomorrow
Austerity or growth?
Japan in danger of becoming 'just a place to fly over'
Beware of the business cycle?
An inconvenient truth
Limited offer sale: Buy a country
Where did our money go?
Leading from behind - a year of elections is almost over
Driving towards a green future
Waiting for springtime
Preserve or Perish
Startlingly similar Asia policy for Obama, Romney
Globalisation remains an irresistible trend
Google has the edge in smartphone war
U.S. Braces for China's Rise
Mankind’s General Scourge
The summer holidays are over and nothing has changed!
Put the hidden trillions to work
Making sense of India’s woes and wonders
Storm in a teacup!
Let’s give bad bankers a venue to admit their sins
News is about depth, not puff or velocity
Booming India, but too few toilets
Delayed Court decisions doesn't mean one may continue to play 'Great Game'
We need media to reflect on data and offer public a balanced view
Big polluters can lead in forging common purpose
The weighty issue of choosing a leader
EU-India Relations - Facing similar challenges
Educating with a goal
The Judicial Malaise
We are growing out, but not growing up
EU´s retrenchment enigma
Urbulence in the Eurozone and the effect on SMEs
Skolkovo May Help Russia to Diversify
Make things more effective
Tapping into the Commonwealth connection
Innovative models for public finance
Facebook revolution but Indian style
The feel-good factor
Asian investors - a private equity opportunity
India needs to be taller and stronger
China´s low sales volume...
Nations playing leapfrog
Shafts of sunlight
What webs we weave
As performers go to Davos, the circus steals the show
Can we control the politicians?
 
2011
Europe’s reminiscence
China firms should go for win-win in overseas ventures
Of procrastination...
Making sense of profiteering
Truth about financial mess must be laid bare
Small is also beautiful
China can help Europe with debt crisis
Excising the cancer of global corruption
Education, a critical asset
Arab uprisings set in motion forces of creative destruction
A new era of change
We must ensure better education for all
Beijing wary of bankrolling a lost cause
Asean's re-emergence as a local and global leader
Why India's Role in the Global Economy is Still Work in Progress
Its the leadership, stupid!
Reverse globalisation: The new buzzword
China ratchets forward with energy efforts
By Frank-Jürgen Richter
Global Times, March 15, 2017
 

During China's annual two sessions last week we saw the Chinese leaders taking a sober, measured view of the future, while in the US, President Trump continued to irritate the media and his own administration with his continuous tweets. We don't yet see the newly elected US government projecting stable economic policies. In contrast, the widespread stability within China should ensure growth continues smoothly.

Headlining this year's two sessions both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang emphasized that China's projected growth was about 6.5 percent, indicating that they would be happy if it is higher, but not too upset if it is a little lower as they acknowledge the present global turmoil. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to 3.3 percent through 2017, though India and China are tagged at 7.3 and 6.5 percent respectively - though India grows from a much lower economic base than China. I hope that President Xi will continue to strengthen business sentiment following his January call to strongly continue globalization, for it is only through concerted equable globalization that we can minimize the use of our finite global resources.

Returning to the two sessions, I noted the expressed themes of urban regeneration and growth. It was stated that some 13.14 million new jobs had been created through 2016 and that about 11 million more will be needed in 2017. It is quite a balancing act as many of China's rural population continue to migrate to urban areas, and the growing middle class search for desirable products even while the government introduces reforms to tame unruly financial forces.

One of the government's concerns is energy supply. Ever greater supplies of energy are demanded, most often as electricity, while globally there is a demand to reduce atmospheric pollution. China is one of the founders of the 2015 Paris Agreement to which all governments agreed. That meeting was a landmark success, initiated by an earlier meeting between President Xi and former US President Barack Obama when they jointly agreed to curb their greenhouse gas emissions. Thus China is expected to introduce more eco-friendly methods of iron and steel manufacturing and cement manufacturing. The country will also moderate overcapacity in its State-owned industries to reduce the coal extraction needed for electricity generation, favoring instead oil, gas or nuclear options with their lower potential of creating CO2. China will also implement greater renewable electricity generating capacity from solar, wind, hydro and geo-thermal sources.

The Paris Agreement contained pledges by governments about their future levels of pollution via their Nationally Determined Contributions wherein they state how they will evolve their modes of energy creation. BP's 2016 annual Statistical Review notes the slow growth of "new fuel" consumption: renewables hit 2.8 percent of energy consumption worldwide in 2015, an increase of 0.8 percent in 10 years, while oil reached 32.9 percent of worldwide energy consumption and coal and natural gas accounted for 29.2 percent and 23.8 percent, respectively. BP suggests that natural gas, as it is much less polluting than coal, will be the substitute to combat pollution.

We must not forget that pollution arises not only from the consumption of energy sources, like fossil fuels used massively for electricity generation, but also from inefficiencies, as heat escaping from buildings, and the transport sector. As GDP rises everyone will consume more energy. All governments (and the Chinese are no exception) expect a global doubling of GDP over the next 20 years but they will attempt to restrict their energy growth to only 30 percent or so. Premier Li at the People's Congress stressed innovation and entrepreneurship to increase energy efficiency to reduce China's energy intensity and help it meet its Paris Agreement targets.

These changes in the commercial sector of China's vast enterprise, including populating and re-jobbing new cities, result in reducing real poverty and eliminating fuel poverty for millions more. The transparent policies represent a commitment to the management of an intricate social and fiscal stability program. But, the International Energy Agency just announced in their 2017 Five-year Forecast that oil supplies will tighten in the coming years, creating future concerns for China. With oil priced at $50 it made no sense to invest in new extractive capacity. Plus US shale oils were gushing. It was inevitable that multi-national exploration teams were held back. New oil and gas fields will be found in costly places - in deep off-shore seas and in very cold places like the Arctic - and it is inevitable that fuel prices will rise. But the short-term effect of low fuel prices has been the too-low income of the oil majors, and thus their cost-cutting and lack of exploration.

Such future trends are the bedrock of the Chinese government's careful planning. I am pleased to see the deep concern about the Chinese people expressed in the targets of the People's Congress. One aim is to nurture a sense of long-term purpose and to navigate smoothly as though by an expert helmsman facilitating guided changes in strategic directions.

 

The author is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global visions community.

 


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