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2017
Asia Needs more Dialogue
Solutions to urban pollution may prove complex
Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement
Investing in quality education is imperative if India wants to reap demographic dividends
China needs to lead in new multi-stakeholder world
China’s B&R initiative leading a resurgence of Asia
Education is key - but long-term: Can we survive?
New wave of robots will be beneficial to all
China needs to continue with its ‘heavy lifting’
Time is right for Chinese firms to invest in Europe
Robots to the rescue for China?
Asian Multinationals are Going Global, But to Where?
China ratchets forward with energy efforts
China’s calm necessary for globalization push
Bridging managerial gaps involves trust-building
China well-placed to power its future through green technology advances
China's new 'springtime' is here
2016
China’s moves show it’s banking on the future
Mindset for action at the G20 summit will be determined by Chinese presidency
Chinese head-hunting intensifies for rare managers that can steer overseas firms
US talk of isolation jars with growing links in Europe and Asia
Electoral rhetoric on global trade not in sync with reality
Is it time to be prudent and consider austerity policies again?
What will we do if we have no oil?
Unlock talent by finding the right fit for a person
The benefits are real and tangible
Trade along China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ won’t succeed without the currency of trust
Reasons for optimism about the long term
2015
Can big oil go green and win?
Poorer Nations Could Sway Climate Talks
Combating Idleness and Deprivation
How China can be a model of food sustainability for the developing world
Kyoto II – Is it a Done Deal?
A meeting of the two largest economic powers
Why China will experience a 'soft' landing
Beware of superstitions
The Elephant and Dragon move ahead
G-7 target on fossil fuels raises many questions
Why Battle for Net Neutrality in the US Matters Globally
China’s resurgence – the ‘normal new’
Wanted: A managerial culture that embraces cultural differences
China's early education plan a smart investment in the future
The New Normal for China and India
2014
China's infrastructure push offers a sure track to better growth
US-China climate pact a good start, but not quite enough
Rethink the human’s place in the ‘digital revolution’
China springs a carbon surprise
Infrastructure - the invisible hand in full view
Dialogue vital for survival of Iraqi nation
China must nurture a new generation of beautiful minds
Great expectations in China and India
GM Cereals – The Pros and Corns
Time to be Honest about Our Energy Prospects
Weathering the Storm of Climate Change
Making a Big Decision? Beware of Your Biases
West Deserves Better Logistics Infrastructure
Digital Currencies do Represent the Future
From 'Printed' Houses to Wooden Skyscrapers
It’s time to bail out our schools, not our firms
Solution to India’s housing shortage – print new ones!
And the most promising green technologies of 2014 are ...
Transport infrastructure key to domestic, export growth
Oil stopgaps: Not worth risking
2013
Why the US should grant Edward Snowden amnesty
May we be more optimistic!
China headed for another massive social experiment?
A dialogue that worked
Yes, politicians deserve vacations - because we benefit
NPOs, NGOs invaluable as creators of dialogue
Look closer and ask: Is America reinventing itself?
Boston bombings case underlines need for dialogue
Millennium Development Goals or own goals?
As usual it's about balance - and timing - of course
Chinese strategists make right moves for growth
2012
Preparing for tomorrow
Austerity or growth?
Japan in danger of becoming 'just a place to fly over'
Beware of the business cycle?
An inconvenient truth
Limited offer sale: Buy a country
Where did our money go?
Leading from behind - a year of elections is almost over
Driving towards a green future
Waiting for springtime
Preserve or Perish
Startlingly similar Asia policy for Obama, Romney
Globalisation remains an irresistible trend
Google has the edge in smartphone war
U.S. Braces for China's Rise
Mankind’s General Scourge
The summer holidays are over and nothing has changed!
Put the hidden trillions to work
Making sense of India’s woes and wonders
Storm in a teacup!
Let’s give bad bankers a venue to admit their sins
News is about depth, not puff or velocity
Booming India, but too few toilets
Delayed Court decisions doesn't mean one may continue to play 'Great Game'
We need media to reflect on data and offer public a balanced view
Big polluters can lead in forging common purpose
The weighty issue of choosing a leader
EU-India Relations - Facing similar challenges
Educating with a goal
The Judicial Malaise
We are growing out, but not growing up
EU´s retrenchment enigma
Urbulence in the Eurozone and the effect on SMEs
Skolkovo May Help Russia to Diversify
Make things more effective
Tapping into the Commonwealth connection
Innovative models for public finance
Facebook revolution but Indian style
The feel-good factor
Asian investors - a private equity opportunity
India needs to be taller and stronger
China´s low sales volume...
Nations playing leapfrog
Shafts of sunlight
What webs we weave
As performers go to Davos, the circus steals the show
Can we control the politicians?
 
2011
Europe’s reminiscence
China firms should go for win-win in overseas ventures
Of procrastination...
Making sense of profiteering
Truth about financial mess must be laid bare
Small is also beautiful
China can help Europe with debt crisis
Excising the cancer of global corruption
Education, a critical asset
Arab uprisings set in motion forces of creative destruction
A new era of change
We must ensure better education for all
Beijing wary of bankrolling a lost cause
Asean's re-emergence as a local and global leader
Why India's Role in the Global Economy is Still Work in Progress
Its the leadership, stupid!
Reverse globalisation: The new buzzword
The New Normal for China and India
By Frank-Jürgen Richter
Business Times, January 28, 2015
 

Many people go to Davos simply to meet other people, and heads of state are no exception. All are drawn to the discussions and formal presentations; one of the eagerly awaited presentations was that of the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. He gave an eloquent presentation, full of hope for the future and stating that China was not going to have a hard landing as its economy slowed – or at least, as its growth rate stabilised at the “new normal” of 7 per cent or perhaps a little more.

As nations become “developed”, their growth as indicated by GDP figures year on year falls somewhat, and China is no exception. From 2012 it has alarmed some observers as its growth seems to be faltering, falling from 8 per cent to 7.3 per cent in the last two quarters. Observers seem to forget that China’s growth has, over the longer term, varied from 14.2 per cent to 3.8 per cent through 1989 to 2014 – sometimes rising and falling with rapidity. Premier Li sought to calm the markets by his embracing of the “New Normal”.

Premier Li’s presentation has been widely reported and analysed in detail, but I feel not enough has been presented on the relativities of his views (about China’s future) against those presented at the same meeting about India’s future. Just ahead of Davos, the International Monetary Fund updated its World Economic Outlook and posted that India’s projected growth in 2016 will be about 6.5 per cent, overtaking the 6.3 per cent rate that it had forecast for China.

This would make India the fastest growing major emerging economy. Naturally many listened with interest to the speeches of Indian officials.O ne session given by Arun Jaitley, Indian Minister of Finance, was led ably by Andrew Sorkin, columnist for The New York Times, who posed leading questions which were all easily and eloquently dealt with by Mr Jaitley.

Both countries have young leaders as well as new governments. China is guided by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang (both from October 2013), while India is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi (since May 2014). Each has begun their state operations with vigour but of course differently as India remains a democracy, albeit a noisy one, while China is managed by the People’s Republic and its various branches.

As each country developed it protected its institutions from potential takeovers by the more developed players in Europe and the US. But now each nation acknowledges it needs to reform its services sector to become more sophisticated and to be better able to mesh with the global markets.

India will soon be debating a wide-ranging Finance Bill, and China will investigate opening up its Banking and Insurances sector to outsiders while keeping its watchful regulatory eyes wide open. Premier Li was adamant they were looking to maintain medium to high growth and to develop ever more jobs across the whole of China over the next two decades.

Perhaps it ought not to be a surprise; given that India and China are two similar hugely populous Asian nations we hear similar stories from both governments. They both achieved their modern status at about the same time,and now each nation is firmly looking at deep reforms across the board to streamline outdated systems and to rationalise outdated policies. Although the IMF sees India growing faster in 2016 than China, the latter is far richer with US$7,000 per capita; India in comparison is at only US$1,500 (149th in global terms).

DIFFERENTLY ORGANISED, SIMILAR TARGETS
Let me opine that China will be more successful than India in the middle term. India has a much more open society than China, its press and other media, for instance, are clamorous. We hear that the Indian government faces many great challenges from its nearly autonomous regional governments, so what New Delhi wants may not be enacted across the nation: and for some development, like infrastructure, coherence is needed.

China has quietly grasped that it is facing a rural to urban migration that other developing nations have had to face.

“London’s streets are paved with gold” was a theme in one UK stage fantasy: but they never were, even though masses arrived in the capital looking for a fortune. China is not going to have this predicament. Instead, it has created vast new transport interlinks, numerous new towns, and is organizing the relocation of 400,000 million rural persons over the next decades into these new towns. These towns will have good local infrastructures to better support the people in schools, hospitals and importantly, new money-earning occupations.

Ministers mentioned that both China and India will take advantage of the falling oil prices to revise their high levels of energy subsidies yet maintain their eco-energy programmes. Mr Jaitley said they had already reduced some of the fuel subsidies and were to grasp a difficult kerosene subsidy that had been mismanaged as income redistribution for the poor. He was very clear that India had to play a neat balancing act as lower subsidies were not to be seen as a stealth tax within a tradition of low taxes, but rather as a re-balancing within budget constraints. Government ministers were clear that neither nation has sufficient sovereign wealth funds to disperse grand social welfare schemes – people must work for a living and to turn over their cash, in part as taxes, to support the nation’s budgets.

I see China and India as differently organized but with similar modern targets. Each nation is reforming hard and closing down on corrupt practices and rent-seeking, each using the same globally sound methods inclined to transparency, inclusiveness and the rule of law. As for the IMF forecast for 2016, the growth of China and India at about 6.5 per cent is so similar it ought not to be unduly commented upon: both countries will be winners!

 

The writer is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global visions community.


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